Projections
The security situation in Tripoli will remain largely the same, although there is a risk of a slight deterioration in the lead up to parliamentary elections. Demonstrations are likely, with the potential for low-level violence, particularly if the elections are cancelled.
Projections for the security environment in Benghazi are similar, although there are a number of local issues that could also spark low level unrest, particularly if there are any developments around the issue of semi-autonomy.
The risk of clashes in rural and isolated areas of the country will remain, particularly in the south. Tensions remain around a number of recent flashpoint areas, and personnel should be aware of the risk when travelling outside of the country's major cities.
Tripoli
The security situation in Tripoli remains unchanged. There is an ongoing risk of clashes involving rival militia groups and there is likely to be an increase in political activism and demonstration with the potential for low level violence as parliamentary elections approach. If the elections are delayed, the risk will increase in line with the likely increase in levels of frustration that accompanies any major delays in the transition process.
AKE personnel on the ground reported a number of small-scale clashes in the city over the past week. One man was reportedly shot dead in central Tripoli, in the area that also contains the Radisson Hotel. The clash was reportedly part of a personal feud, which quickly became a family feud. Relatives of the deceased man reportedly carried out a number of retaliatory attacks on the properties of the other party's family, burning down two shops and a car garage. Personnel in the vicinity are advised to maintain vigilance, although there is not assessed to be any direct threat to foreign personnel from the incident.
The incident demonstrates the problems associated with the widespread presence of weapons in the country, which means that personal arguments can escalate quickly in to more serious feuds involving firearms. Personnel are advised to remain aware of this fact when in country, as well as the lack of any significant police presence, which limits the response capabilities available.
Benghazi
The security situation in Benghazi remains the same. The risk of clashes between militia groups is lower than in Tripoli, although there have been a number of cases reported. Demonstrations are likely in the lead up to countrywide elections and could also occur if elections are delayed.
There have been a number of small-scale attacks targeting government assets, international diplomatic targets and local political demonstrations in the city, and the risk of similar incidents endures.
Alan Fraser is a Libya specialist with AKE, a British risk mitigation company working in Libya throughout the crisis. You can access AKE’s intelligence website Global Intake here
