Libya's Prosperous Future

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has just given its opinion on the state of the Libyan economy, and it makes for interesting reading.

To take just a few examples:

  • Hydrocarbon production is close to 90 percent of the pre-conflict level, and should have fully recovered in the coming year;
  • Non-resource sectors have also seen a turnaround, led by "public spending on reconstruction and the release of pent-up private demand";
  • Real GDP is expected to increase by a record-breaking 122 percent in 2012, more than compensating for last year's contraction of 60 percent, and continue growing at 17 percent in 2013, and at an average of 7 percent per year from 2014 to 2017;
  • Increased hydrocarbon revenues will provide a current account surplus of 22 percent of GDP this year.

Growth projections assume an improvement in the security situation, and the report includes a list of things the country must do to secure its future, such as increasing capacity, improving the quality of education, rebuilding infrastructure, and developing its financial market.

It's very clear that if Libyans can suspend their tribal conflicts and work to together there is a prosperous future available to all.

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