The most powerful decision-maker in the oil sector, NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanallah, is not only based in Tripoli, he is nominally the employee of Hifter’s enemies — previously the General National Congress (GNC), and now the GNA. It is superficially surprising, then, that he now appears to support the LNA’s takeover of the oil crescent ports and on Sept. 19 called for the long-standing blockades of the pipelines connecting the southwest oil fields to the coast to be lifted. This is because Sanallah wants to decimate all forms of blackmail and extortion in one fell swoop.
Hifter’s ouster of federalist leader Ibrahim Jadhran might provide just the momentum Sanallah needs. Jadhran had long occupied the oil ports and prevented Sanallah from increasing much-needed crude production throughout 2016 by demanding bribes before he would let Libya’s oil flow.
More surprising than Sanallah’s support is that of both the international community and the unity government’s Presidential Council (PC), which, after initially condemning the stealthy takeover, appears to have acquiesced to LNA control. The only condition they have issued for their support is that oil exports resume under the banner of the NOC, and not illicitly.
Herein lies one answer to the riddle of why the international community and the UN-mediated PC, which it supports, would now agree to support Hifter over the federalists, despite having initially supported the federalists against Hifter: oil.
Libya’s economy is in dire straits, and the cash from oil exports is needed to support the foundations of a coherent Libyan government. Hence, it now appears that all the mainstream players are willing to accommodate whatever solution can get crude flowing — putting funds into Libya’s balance sheet.
On the one hand, this is quite an about-face. Over the last months, the West has largely opposed Hifter, driving him further into the embrace of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, it appears that a covert meeting was held in Tunis, Tunisia, on Sept. 8 where Western powers and Hifter’s envoys discussed the importance of safeguarding the oil ports.
