This negative reaction provoked an angry backlash throughout Libya, with some Libyans seeing this condemnation as interference in Libyan affairs. Angry demonstrations were held in many cities across the country Sept. 16 in support of the LNA. Zintani and Warshefanan militias also threatened to cut the Western pipelines, which take gas to Italy via Mellitah and the Greenstream, if the LNA were attacked.
Fayez Serraj, prime minister of the UN-backed Presidential Council, was the first to change his tune, stating Sept. 13 that he would not declare war on another Libyan faction, nor seek foreign intervention. This sentiment was repeated by local officials and city representatives from Misrata, who told Kobler that Misratan forces would not go to war to support Jadhran against the LNA.
By Sept. 16, the tone of most international actors had shifted; they welcomed the speedy resumption of exports of stored crude, the handover of oil ports to the NOC and the encouraging of a new round of dialogue. Bizarrely, the traditionally pro-Hifter French have been making the biggest fuss.
Libya’s current political alliances are not only in flux — they are nontransitive. Enemies quite frequently work together on shared objectives, and two allies could have opposite relationships with a third party. Alliances can shift and change within the blink of an eye, with sworn enemies joining forces to confront a threat.
In response to this enduring fluidity, the UN-backed political process cannot stick to fixed ideas and needs to bend like a reed in the wind or risk being snapped like a twig in a vice. Working to bring Hifter’s supporters inside the political dialogue is the right approach. With any luck, it could even culminate in a unity government worthy of the name.
