One should keep in mind three fundamental reasons that make dividing the country a road map to a renewed civil war that would be more voracious this time than what the country has seen so far. First, Libya’s oil-producing and exporting region is located right in the middle of the country, with few producing fields in the western and southern regions. This makes dividing up oil revenues or actual oil production itself a far more complicated process than many would think.
It brings to mind a prediction Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, Gadhafi’s son and heir, made at the start of troubles against his father’s rule in 2011, when he said that if the country is divided, then Libyans will lose the oil, which is the country’s main lifeline.
In fact, disagreements on how best to divide oil revenues among Libyans is one of the stickiest issues and top causes of the little wars that have been taking place off and on in the North African country over the last six years.
Second, inter-tribal relations among Libyan tribes all over the country are very strong, and social relations among clans and families — including inter-tribal marriages — are stronger, making it almost impossible for people to accept the idea of dividing them up into separate countries. Tribes and clans are the cornerstones of Libyan society, making it too complicated to mess with.
The third reason division is not a good political option is that Libyans, in general, do not support any idea that might lead to breaking up their country. Even a federalist system — in which local governments have more say in their local affairs — does not enjoy much support.