Finally, Abu Dhabi hosted talks May 2 between Hifter and Sarraj after a 16-month standoff between the two sides. According to some Libyan sources, Moscow’s and Abu Dhabi’s unprecedented pressure led to the meeting, which in turn reportedly resulted in several important agreements. Yet it is too early to judge their feasibility.
The flurry allows us to contemplate the prospects of a real breakthrough settlement in Libya and adds a dimension to Russia’s regional policy.
Moscow largely interacts with Hifter through the Defense Ministry, as dialogue with Tripoli remains the preserve of the Foreign Ministry. Such “a division of labor” testifies to the polyphony of Russia's external policy in the Middle East. Just as with Syria, the activities of various Russian ministries and departments complement each other.
Russia employs some tactics that may appear misleading, generating some semblance of internal inconsistency or a lack of congruence. However, looking at strategy instead of tactics reveals that Russian policy in the region in general, and in Libya in particular, is very similar to the West’s in many respects.
Moscow’s involvement in conflict-resolution processes in Syria, Libya and Yemen is commensurate with the engagement of other extra-regional players. Moscow’s presence is heaviest in Syria and lightest in Yemen. Many of the players are wary of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the civil war in Yemen, where it backs President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi and Iran backs the Houthi rebels and former president.
This leaves others at a loss about how to address the Yemeni humanitarian catastrophe. Like other global players, Russia tries to minimize its interference with Middle Eastern affairs and encourages regional actors to increase their responsibility for countries’ development. Moreover, Moscow’s perspective is similar to the West’s regarding the situation on the ground: Military intervention is mainly an instrument allowing the political process to gain momentum.